Short Butterfly Dec 2015 - Performance Report Week 43/2015

We ended last week with a strong run up on 3,450 points which is kind of over my preferred range of 3,400 points. From here I am already in the zone of losses. Having 3 short call options open means, with every point up from here I lose 30 EUR. That is kind of the situation I would like to avoid.

Because of that I have opened the next short put option at 3,550 points on Friday to give me a little room to breath. But after crunching the numbers on the weekend I figured out, that this step does not really do the trick yet. One put option still means there is 2 naked call options costing me money on the upside. In fact, my protection begins at 3,700 points where I have bought my long call options. Running up another 250 points would mean a loss of 2,500 EUR alread for those 2 options plus another 2,000 EUR for the third call starting after 3,550 points.

To understand the positioning to the fullest, you can have a look at my position table down below. So far, I am delta negative, which means, on markets moving higher I lose money. Markets going down will make me some money.

As we are already in Tuesday night as I am typing those lines, I have to admit, that the strategy was not optimal for this period once again. The market made a strong move from less than 3,000 points up to 3,450 points leaving me with a wide range and no clear restistance at the current level.

So far, I will close out the low call at 2,950 points and take profit an the lowest naked put option at 3,150 points. That means, my range moves a bit higher. At the same time, due to my payments to close the call option, I am running out of premium to get my complete position in a win.

What are my possibilies now? At first, I could sell another straddle at 3,450 points to narrow the net and earn round about 200 points here. That would offer me a nice buffer. My new range would be between 3,300 points and 3,500 points. If we moved down again, I could sell another straddle at 3,250 points. So my range would widen again a bit from 3,200 to 3,500 points.

What I do not like with that idea is the essential risk on the upside. I really have to think through if I try to work that out or if I cut losses and focus on the next month.

As I will be on holiday in the Philippines with my wife in November, I feel that closing out and having a good off time would be the better choice. I will have to decide until Friday...